At the beginning of this Election Cycle (i.e. when the last poll closed in each district on < a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_general_elections,_2006" target="next">November 7, 2006), I wouldn't have given much of a chance that any Republican other than Giuliani could be elected President in 2008. And when Rudy (and Fred Thompson, once he started floating the idea) both flamed out, I figured whoever did win (McCain, Romney, or Huckabee) was toast.
Well.
What I've always figured was Hillary! would win a squeaker. Nothing on the Republican side to inspire any but the base to get out and vote. Most of the rest of the 50% who wouldn't vote for her even if Malcolm X was the only other choice would just sit it out. She'd get her base plus Independents who liked the idea of a competent woman as President and voila, a low turnout and another co-Presidency.
Well, the Democratic Primary race has become a choice between a candidate for whom 50% of the electorate wouldn't vote if Malcolm X were the only other choice, and Malcolm X.
Yes, that's unfair to Obama, but he did worse than whiff badly at a great opportunity to hit one out of the park. (He could have fundamentally changed American politics by defining exactly how he differed from the old racialist politics of Sharpton et. al.) Instead he hit a monster pop-up that let people see exactly how much sympathy and respect he had for the racialists, and how little he was willing to do to actually change anything.
So the mainstream media is chanting "back back back" while the outfield, second baseman, and short stop (blogs, Hillary!, and McCain) are camped underneath in short centerfield. Somebody's going to field that airball (most likely Hillary!, in the form of finessing the delegates at the Democratic National Convention) and Mighty Obama will be out.
Meanwhile, the only real thing Clinton had going for her was her air of inevitability, and the associated assumption of competence, Well, kiss that goodbye, and say hello to all the reminders of exactly why so many people dislike her so thoroughly.
My predicting ability has been lousy re: the Republican primaries, so I'm not as confident in this prediction as I might have been hadn't I been so far in the tank for Rudy, but I don't see how McCain loses in November.
Assuming, of course, he makes it that far. Damn, the man looks old. Nothing wrong with that (Reagan was no spring chicken when he took office, and he made it through eight years, but then again, he didn't spend time in the Hanoi Hilton) but the Presidency is a hard, hard job. McCain's VP pick is going to be very, very important. (And if it's Huckabee, I'll vote for either Malcolm X or the Shrew.)
Gah, what options.